From ESPN's Amin Elhassan, on whether or not the Grizzlies' postseason hopes really rest on perimeter shooting alone...
Yes and no. The West this year will be incredibly competitive at the top, and the gap between the first seed and the fifth seed won't be that big, so it's hard to say that any one team can "own" the conference. That said, the Grizzlies are already firmly ensconced in that top-five grouping with very little help from the perimeter. New head coach Dave Joerger is more reliant on "Mathketball" principles than his predecessor Lionel Hollins, so it wouldn't be a stretch to see a greater emphasis on the long ball in Memphis' attack this season (Mike Conley, Quincy Pondexter and Jerryd Bayless should see more attempts, in particular).
But that only solves a small part of the problem. Ultimately, the Grizzlies' lack of shooting is a personnel issue. They don't have many knockdown perimeter shooters. They picked up Mike Miller after he cleared amnesty waivers from Miami, and while he is a top-shelf 3-point shooter, it's hard to see him playing more than spot minutes (his athletic ability and agility have declined significantly the past few years). Other offseason perimeter additions such as Nick Calathes and Jamaal Franklin aren't 3-point threats.
Expect Grizzlies management to help Joerger by acquiring the perimeter shooting they desperately need. If Ed Davis makes strides this year, it opens the door for Memphis to at least explore the market for Zach Randolph, who will probably look to opt out of the last year of his deal this summer and seek one last big payday. Proactively moving Randolph could help net some much-needed perimeter help, as well as some unexpected cap flexibility in the near future.
Agree with this for the most part; I personally think Zach would be crazy to pass up $17 million, but I respect Elhassan's opinion a good bit and if he thinks it is realistic, it is. Also fair to play the waiting game on Davis. If he is a stud in 20+ MPG heading into January, I pursue a deal, no doubt.