GBB Community NBA Mock Draft: Orlando Magic pick #12 TRADE ALERT

Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

With the 12th pick in the GBB Community Mock Draft, the Orlando Magic trade the pick to the Atlanta Hawks!

Previous Picks: #1#2#3#4#5#6#7#8#9#10#11
Team and Draft Order Representative GM Player Selected
#1 Cleveland Cavaliers Chris Faulkner Andrew Wiggins
#2 Milwaukee Bucks Kwhittington Joel Embiid
#3 Philadelphia 76ers KellyMelvina Jabari Parker
#4 Orlando Magic BluesCityJoe Dante Exum
#5 Philadelphia 76ers (from Utah) KellyMelvina Aaron Gordon
#6 Boston Celtics Dekebarron Noah Vonley
#7 LA Lakers Tonyallenismyhomeboy Marcus Smart
#8 Chicago Bulls (from Sacramento) Chip Williams Julius Randle
#9 Charlotte Hornets Andrew Ford Nik Stauskas
#10 Utah Jazz Jmxisnext Adreian Payne
#11 Denver Nuggets VancouverGrizz Gary Harris

The Orlando Magic trade the 12th pick, Arron Afflalo, and a future Philadelphia 76ers 1st round pick to the Atlanta Hawks for the 15th pick and Paul Millsap.

Why Orlando does it (via BluesCityJoe):

Orlando hoped beyond hope that one of the big 3 (Embiid, Parker, Wiggins) fell to them at #4.  They didn't, so they took Exum.  At #12, they hoped one of the upside PFs - Vonleh, Randle, Gordon – would fall to them.  Again none of them did, so they turn to the trade market to fill a big need.

Victor Oladipo is the future at SG for Orlando, and Arron Afflalo is simply too small to be a starting SF in the league.  As much as they need his outside shooting, either his or Oladipo’s minutes were going to have to suffer.  Enter Millsap, a very good player with range out to and including the 3.  He’s an upgrade to their rebounding and even rim protection despite being slightly undersized.  Millsap and a healthy Vucevic should be a strong duo in the Eastern conference.

The '16 pick is a negligible risk because it's lottery protected and eventually will turn into 2 2nd rounders if it stays protected long enough.  So in terms of short term cost, it's moving down 3 spots, freeing up a logjam at SG, and filling a big need at PF.

Plus the Hollinger trade machine says +3 wins.  Winning!

With the 12th pick the Atlanta Hawks select:

12) Dario Saric, Cibona Zagreb, Croatia


Gamble time. Trading away Paul Millsap hurts me more than you. Trust me. Paul Millsap puts everything on the table - scoring, rebounding, sneaky defense, passing - and takes nothing off of it. He is the best player in this trade, but Afflalo is the scarcer commodity - a shooting guard who plays both sides of the court. You can count them on one hand - Andre Igoudala, Paul George, and perhaps eventually Bradley Beal or Klay Thompson. There really aren't that many shooting guards right now, and getting one on a great contract is tough to pass up.

Though Afflalo is signed for only one more year (he has a player year after), he makes $2mm less than Millsap, is two years younger, and will thrive in Coach Budenholzer's pass and move offense. He provides vital ball handling to a team who, last year, had very little (Millsap often found the ball in his hands by default).

And that leads up to Dario Saric - the player who can hopefully make this trade worthwhile. Just twenty years old, Saric has been already been playing professional for five seasons. This past year, he led the Adriatic league in scoring, while winning both the Championship and League MVP.

We're drafting Saric to let him do the things he does best - handle the ball, run the floor, and use his superior height and court vision to find open shooters (of which, the Hawks have in abundance). Meanwhile we're counting on the consummate professional, Al Horford, to cover all of Saric's weaknesses - rebounding, defending, protecting the rim.

Some will point to Saric's below average three point shooting (34% last year) as a problem, but I see that as a bonus as well. After all, Paul Millsap didn't work himself into a reliable three point shooter until last year, at age twenty-eight. Saric, just twenty, will be encouraged to take the three point shots worth taking. He may never be an above average shooter, but pairing him with Coach Budenholzer this early will only help.

Down the road I could even see running big to big pick and rolls with Saric and Horford (something Josh Smith and Horford did together, once upon a time), but let's not get ahead of ourselves. The hope is that between Saric, Pero Antic and Mike Scott, we can cobble together about 65% of what Millsap did.

Teague-Afflalo-Korver-Saric-Horford is a pretty great starting five, but will it come to fruition in 2014? Saric may not come over this year, though he has stated publicly that he will. This trade moved the Hawks a little lower under the salary cap, and freed up about $10mm to sign another big (Pau Gasol?) if necessary. If teams knew Saric was coming over this year, he wouldn't be going outside the top 10.

I'm gambling on the value, and the future Philadelphia pick we added is our hedge against Saric not coming over immediately. It conveys in 2017 at the earliest, and will either be a late lottery pick, or more likely, two 2nd round picks.  It gives the Hawks a little more trade currency to add a piece in the future, or hopefully, another shot at a great young player.

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