We’ve finally reached the last month of the season. If you want to catch up with our previews of other months, you can find them all here:
Now, since April is a short month, featuring only six games, we’re going to do things a little differently. I’ll show the schedule, make a couple of quick comments about it, and then I’ll move on to the biggest piece of the analysis: my win-loss estimate.
As I’ve said before, this is way too early for any of this stuff. There are so many things that could still happen before the season starts. But I’ve enjoyed the exercise thus far, and it doesn’t make sense to come all this way and then skip out on tying everything together. So while it may be too early to take a guess at wins and losses for a season that doesn’t even start for another two months, I’m going to do it anyway.
Now, without further ado, I present the final installment of my season preview.
March was an okay month for Memphis, and they’ll have a pretty easy finish in April as well. The Spurs will likely be a tough matchup, and OKC and Detroit could be tricky, but the last half-dozen games really aren’t too bad. They’ll also have the return of former Memphis heroes Derrick Rose and Courtney Lee to look forward to when the Knicks visit on the seventh.
Memphis will also finish the regular season without a single back-to-back set in its last two weeks. If nothing else, that means they should be rested to make a push into the playoffs.
I’ve gone back through my projections month-by-month, and after a quick review, I feel pretty good about how I had things to this point. I’m slotting the Grizzlies for four wins in April. Combine that with my projections for the rest of the season, and I’ve got the Grizzlies finishing the 2016-17 season with a record of...
If I’m completely honest, I could see them winning up to 51 or 52 games if things go well. But factoring in the coaching changes, and the youth that they’ll be working with, I think I’d rather set the mark a little lower. Of course, if the bottom falls out and there’s another injury-apocalypse, the season could be an abject disaster. Right now, though, I’m good with taking 48 wins and being at least somewhat conservative here.