WHAT: 2022 NBA Playoffs - Western Conference 2nd Round Game 3 (Series tied 1-1)
WHEN: 7:30 P.M. CT
WHERE: Chase Center, San Francisco, California
BETTING INFORMATION (per DraftKings): Golden State (-6.5, -110), Memphis (+6.5, -110). ML - Golden State (-270), Memphis (+220). O/U at 225.5 (-110)
MEMPHIS: Santi Aldama (Out, knee), Killian Tillie (Out, back)
GOLDEN STATE: Andre Iguodala (Out, neck), Gary Payton II (Out, Elbow fracture), James Wiseman (Out, knee)
PROJECTED STARTING LINEUPS:
MEMPHIS: Ja Morant, Desmond Bane, Ziaire Williams, Jaren Jackson Jr., Xavier Tillman (or maybe Steven Adams)
GOLDEN STATE: Stephen Curry, Jordan Poole, Klay Thompson, Andrew Wiggins, Draymond Green
Two games are under our collective belts in this thrilling Western Conference Semifinals matchup. Now, this series shifts to the Bay. The Warriors have officially snatched home-court advantage in this second round matchup with their game one victory over Memphis. Now, an opportunity is there for Memphis to steal that home-court advantage right back with a singular win in San Francisco.
So many story lines surround a highly anticipated game three in San Francisco. One of those story lines being that both teams had three full days of rest. The other being Dillon Brooks getting suspended for his scary foul on Gary Payton II in game two. Another underrated story heading into tonight’s game three is the return of Memphis Grizzlies big man Steven Adams. How do the Grizzlies snatch home court advantage back in this series?
Control the controllable things
The Grizzlies have done a really good job throughout the Playoffs of controlling what they can control. Memphis will be in a hostile environment tonight as they are in Chase Center. Away from home, and a crowd that is already one of the best in the NBA in terms of noise will be even louder given the added motivation.
The officiating falls under the category of things that neither team can control, and given how physical this series has been, I except the opposite tonight. However, I do think both teams are prepared for a tighter whistle. Memphis will have to play controlled on both ends, and adapt to how the game is being played.
On top of that, taking care of each possession is magnified against Golden State, but add in your on the road as well. Memphis will have to keep the Warriors fans at bay, because Golden State will have their fans roaring. Take care of possessions, stay together, and focus on the main thing - stealing one on their home floor.
Continue to lean on your defense
There is no real secret about this, Memphis’ half-court offense is average at best. What won the Grizzlies 56 games this season was their lock down defense that led to transition offense. Despite the low scoring affair in game two, the Grizzlies did a lot better job on the defensive end of the floor, leading 18 Warriors turnovers, which led to easier baskets for Memphis.
The spacing in transition has to be better for the Grizzlies, along with their decision making. Although Memphis turned Golden State over 18 times in game two, the Grizzlies only had 18 fast break points. Shooting with confidence, moving the ball with confidence - all of it will play a huge role in game three.
I don’t think the Warriors will shoot 18% from beyond the arc again, but Memphis’ rotations defensively caused that to happen. Memphis defensive rotations put a strain on the Warriors “other guys” like Andrew Wiggins to shoot efficient from deep, and it didn’t workout for the Warriors. Keeping the Warriors quiet on the offensive end allowed Memphis more opportunities to score in transition in their game two victory.
Betting Outlook and Predictions
The seven point spread heading into tonight’s matchup is really intriguing. Games one and two have been really close heading into the final minutes of regulation. The Grizzlies to cover, along with the under on 225.5, may be the route if you are betting with DraftKings tonight.
If you are doing a same game parlay, take Ja Morant over 28.5 on the points. Another route would be Desmond Bane to drill more than two three-pointers as Bane has thrived on the road this season and has had time to recover from his lower back injury.
Memphis 110, Golden State 107